This paper examines the degree of persistence in annual Nordic tourist arrivals on the island of Madeira by using data disaggregated by tourism-source countries. For this purpose, the paper adopts methodologies based on the concept of fractional integration. The stability of the fractional differencing parameter across the sample period is also analysed and a brief forecasting exercise is also conducted. The result indicates that the series are highly persistent and only Sweden presents a small degree of mean reverting behaviour. Managerial implications of the main findings are also discussed in the paper.
Persistence characteristics of Nordic tourism arrivals in Madeira and its forecasting
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña
Carlos Pestana Barros
Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Vol. 13, No. Suppl. 1