Re-examination of risk-return dynamics in international equity markets and the role of policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and VIX: Evidence using Markov-switching copulas
Authors
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah
Aviral Kumar Tiwari
Imhotep Paul Alagidede
Type
Article
Journal
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
Pages
1-8
Date
30-06-2022
Abstract

This study re-examines the empirical relationship between risk and return from 1994m12 to 2020m08 in fifteen international equity markets employing the novel time-varying Markov switching copula models. We provide first-time insightful evidence of time-varying Markov tail dependence structure and dynamics between risk and return in international equity markets. Results show that the dependence structure is positive for USA, UK, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Australia, Taiwan, Canada, Mexico, Japan, France and South Africa and negative for Singapore, India, Japan and China. Finally, we document the effects of policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and VIX conditional on different markets states.