May 03, 2021
News /
Posted by NCID

The Navarra Center for International Development produces a series of figures each week focusing on a topic per month. In April it was Financial Markets. Here is an analysis by regions.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Debt to GDP was already high in Sub-Saharan Africa before the pandemic, but the coronavirus related economic crisis has sky-rocketed some of its levels. Kenya's public debt has been rising since 2012, when it stood at 38.2 per cent. By 2018 it was of 57%, but the pandemic effects rose it up to 69% of its GDP by November 2020. On the same note, South Africa's public debt has never stop rising since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2019 it rose up to 62.6% whilst Covid rocketed up to the current 80.3% as of April 2021. In the continent, Zambia has already defaulted in its payment to creditors and other countries such as Angola, Chad and Ghana are at risk.

Central America

Since 1997, Guatemala has been in deficit and it is expected to follow the same path. The IMF says the gap will widen in the coming years and Guatemala will experience a negative current account and increasing gross debt.

Southeast Asia

The IMF projected that The Philippines' debt-to-GDP ratio will decline to 37.5% in 2024, but the figure may now rise as the country is prone to external shocks and the coronavirus pandemic pairs with the uncertainty of its vulnerability to natural disasters due to climate change.