Joël Cariolle, researcher at CERDI (Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développment International) and Associate Research Fellow at FERDI (Foundation pour les Étudeset Reserches sur le Développment International), presented his paper "Corruption in turbulent times: a response to shocks?" as part of the NCID Weekly Seminars sessions

“It seems that the 2008 crisis revealed that good governance contributes to absorb external shocks,” emphasized Joël Cariolle in his opening statement. The reverse had been documented in economic studies; bad governance contributes domestic instability. “However”, continued, “the same studies are quick to point out that the ability of governments to handle economic crises depends on the quality of institutions!”

His study therefore focused on developing a model of how output fluctuations, - especially exports - affect institutions and the quality governance. Corruption was broadly categorized into two types: opportunistic corruption, which stems from the mechanical ups and downs in public and private rents induced mainly by export transitory movements and survival corruption, which arises from the necessity to relax constraints on income or business during hardships.

By using indicators of perception of corruption and experience of bribe payments from the World Bank´s Enterprise survey data, the researcher was able to show that corruption was affected by economic instability regardless of whether this happened before or after. “I am excited about this paper since it is a first attempt to set an analytical framework for the empirical analysis of economic instability on corruption," said Joël Cariolle in his concluding remarks.