Christopher Rauh, a Professor of Economics and Data Science at University of Cambridge, visited the NCID to give as seminar entitled "If You Only Have a Hammer: Optimal Dynamic Prevention Policy".

His paper proposes a dynamic decision model for situations in which a policymaker faces a recurrent risk and has to choose between early action (prevention) and late action (de-escalation). 

The dynamics, damages and actions are modelled in a Markov model. This allows us to first derive three simple theoretical results. First, optimal...