Abstract: In the post World War II period, most U.S. cities experienced large movements of population from the city centers to
the suburbs. In this paper we provide causal evidence that this process of suburbanization can be explained by the
rise of violent crime in city centers. We do so by proposing a new instrument to exogenously predict violent crime.
This instrument uses as time variation the U.S. national levels of lead poisoning. Cross-sectional variation comes from
a proxy for soil quality, which explains the fate of lead in soil and its subsequent bioavailability. Using data for more
than 300 U.S. cities, results show that the increase in violent crime from the level in 1960 to its maximum in 1991
decreased the proportion of people living in city centers by 15 percentage points. This increase in crime moved almost
25 million people to the suburbs. As a result of suburbanization, we find that people remaining in the city center
are more likely to be black people, consistent with the “white flight" phenomenon. We then demonstrate that this
suburbanization process had aggregate effects on the city. Exploiting a spatial equilibrium model, we determine that
violent crime had externalities on productivity and amenities.
Federico is an applied economist with research interests in urban economics, the economics of crime and labour economics. He uses both data and theory to address policy relevant research questions, with a particular focus on local labour and housing markets. His current research focuses on the determinants of residential suburbanization and the aggregate effects of different city developments.