Pamplona. January 14th, 2013.

Lorenzo Rotunno is a PhD candidate from The Graduate Institute of Geneva.  During his visit, he discussed the idea that Free Trade Agreements (FTA) are more likely to be signed by governments that have a high probability of losing their power for the next term. By estimating how the change in the probability of an FTA is linked to the likelihood of government turnover, Rottuno concluded that countries are more likely to sign FTAs after the unexpected exit of their leaders; that is when the probability of political turnover is high. Rotunno further highlighted the importance of this effect for countries with a fragile democracy.