Professor Luis-Alberiko Gil-Alaña presented an overview of the econometric investigations that he has performed during the last two years together with his coauthors on several issues of great interest concerning Kenyan economy. Making use of the technique of long memory and fractional integration in time series, to which he has highly contributed during the last fifteen years, he provided his audience with a clear idea of certain aspects that should be improved regarding certain aspects of the Kenyan economy.
According to his results, fiscal policy is conducted in a more appropriate way than monetary policy in Kenya, being proof of this the remarkable differences in commercial banks rates and treasury bills. Regarding exchange rates, they seem to suffer when shocks take place, specially when these come from the US currency depreciation policies, being this an important issue that Kenyan politicians should take into account. The balance of payments in Kenya is cointegrated with the real exchange rates and relative income. When violence takes place in the country food production decreases drastically but practically no change is suffered in the level of prices. Finally tourism figures prove to be mean reverting, being this a positive sign for the Kenyan economy.
These are the five Working Papers he briefly displayed:
- Interest rate in dynamics in Kenya (with Guglielmo Maria Capporale), 2011
- Nominal exchange rates in Kenya. Are shocks transitory or permanent? An empirical investigation based on fractional integration (with Robert Mudida), 2012
- Violence and the market for food. Evidence from Kenya (with Prakash Singh), 2012
- Testing the Marshall-Lerner condition in Kenya (with Guglielmo Maria Capporale and Robert Mudida), 2012
- Persistence, long memory and seasonality in Kenyan tourism series (with Fernando Pérez de Gracia and Robert Mudida),