This article investigates tourism in Kenya by looking at the degree of persistence in the total number of arrivals and departures for the time period from 1975Q1 to 2011Q4. We use long range dependence techniques and given the quarterly nature of the series examined, seasonality is also taken into account. The results indicate that the tourism sector in Kenya is especially sensitive to political shocks. This is particularly exemplified by the shocks in 1992Q4 and 2008Q1 that were associated with crucial election periods in Kenya. Our results, however, show that shocks are expected to be transitory, disappearing relatively fast.
Persistence, long memory and seasonality in Kenyan tourism time series
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña
Fernando Pérez de Gracia
Annals of Tourism Research Vol. 45